Sam Rainsy (2nd from left) and Hun Xen (right) (Photo: Cambodge Soir Hebdo)

Thursday, September 23, 2010
Op Ed by Jayakhmer
Originally posted at http://www.modernprogressivekhmer.blogspot.com/

If Cambodia were to hold the general elections today, it is safe to assume that the results would be similar to that of the last election. With the 2006 constitutional amendment that allowed governments to be formed with a simple majority in the parliament rather than the previously required two-thirds majority, the last general elections gave a political party a decisive victory for the first time since 1993.

In the 2008 National Assembly General Elections, the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) captured 90 of 123 seats, the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) won 26, and the rest was shared by other political parties.

Cambodia is scheduled to hold its fifth General Elections in 2013. Two years in politics is a life time. Anything can happen during this time that could change the political dynamic and hence the political climate. It is this uncertainty that drives all kind of speculations. Until such change occurs, current political reality is the only basis from which political speculations should be derived.